
Dow futures this week while preparing for the forthcoming minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting. President Donald Trump maintains that his new tariff deadline will remain unchanged, while suggesting an expansion of his trade agenda to encompass a 50% tariff on copper. In the interim, it has been reported that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is a significant candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair under Trump’s administration.
Dow futures exhibited a subdued tone on Wednesday as investors evaluated tariff remarks from Trump while anticipating the forthcoming release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting. Dow futures contracts remained largely stable, while S&P 500 futures decreased by 3 points, representing a decline of 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures saw a slight reduction of 14 points, also reflecting a 0.1% drop.
The primary indices on Wall Street exhibited a mixed performance at the conclusion of trading on Tuesday, with overall sentiment remaining relatively stable despite a barrage of trade-related news. Trump dispatched letters to numerous countries outlining the increased tariffs they are now subject to; however, markets responded positively to the White House’s announcement of an extension for the implementation of these duties until August 1. The tariffs were originally scheduled to take effect today. “Market participants have largely dismissed President Trump’s recent threats to increase tariffs on various countries, concentrating instead on the extension of today’s ‘deadline’ for reinstating the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ from 2nd April, which was anticipated,” noted Jonas Goltermann, Deputy Chief Markets Economist at Capital Economics, in a report.
Nonetheless, Trump maintained during a cabinet meeting on Tuesday that the new deadline will remain fixed, despite having remarked earlier in the week that it was “not 100% firm.” He noted that negotiations are progressing positively with the European Union and China, but cautioned that the EU is mere days from receiving its own tariff letter. The president additionally introduced the possibility of imposing a 50% tariff on imported copper, reflecting his assertive trade strategy that encompasses not only nations but also particular industries. Copper is a particularly crucial metal used in vehicle production, military hardware, power grid infrastructure, and more. Trump suggested that additional levies on a range of sectors, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, may soon be introduced. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asserted that Trump’s levies have generated $100 billion in revenue for the U.S. this year and forecasted that the figure could rise to $300 billion by the end of December. Bessent noted that the significant collections commenced in the second quarter, coinciding with Trump’s implementation of a baseline 10% duty and the removal of tariffs on products such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles. Analysts have observed that tariff revenues have emerged as crucial for the White House, as these funds may assist in mitigating the expenses associated with the multi-trillion-dollar tax cuts and spending package that Trump enacted into law last week.
Market participants are closely monitoring the impending release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, seeking potential insights into the central bank’s outlook on the trajectory of interest rates in the months ahead. Policymakers maintained borrowing costs at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% during the meeting, emphasizing the wisdom of a cautious wait-and-see strategy regarding future decisions as the effects of Trump’s tariffs are better understood. At recent events, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated the argument for this cautious stance, but indicated that officials would likely have already been cutting rates if not for the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs. Market participants have predominantly maintained their positions anticipating that the Federal Reserve will implement two rate cuts prior to the conclusion of 2025, with the initial reduction projected for September, potentially succeeded by another in December. However, the path forward remains uncertain, particularly as Powell encounters mounting pressure from Trump to expedite rate reductions. Trump once more criticized the Fed leader on Tuesday, labeling him as “terrible” and urging his resignation to facilitate the appointment of a new chair who would reduce borrowing costs.
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is being viewed as a “serious contender” to succeed Powell as the next Fed Chair. Hassett, recognized as one of Trump’s closest economic advisers, is currently viewed as a favored choice compared to the earlier frontrunner, Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, according to the WSJ. According to a report by the WSJ, Hassett engaged in discussions with Trump regarding the Federal Reserve position on at least two occasions in June, as indicated by sources with knowledge of the situation. The report from the WSJ emerges in a context of speculation regarding Trump’s potential acceleration of the selection process for Powell’s successor, with the possibility of an announcement occurring later this year. In 2017, Powell was appointed to the position by Trump.
Crude prices remained stable as industry data revealed a significant rise in U.S. crude inventories, raising concerns that tariffs may dampen oil demand. Brent futures experienced a modest increase of 0.1%, reaching $70.19 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures remained largely stable at $68.36 per barrel. Both contracts ascended to a two-week peak on Tuesday, propelled by apprehensions regarding supply disruptions arising from recent Houthi assaults on shipping routes in the Red Sea. The American Petroleum Institute reported during the previous session a sharp, unexpected rise in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending on July 4, with a build of 7.1 million barrels, significantly surpassing the anticipated 2.8 million-barrel draw. Market observers are now anticipating confirmation from the forthcoming Energy Information Administration report, scheduled for later today, particularly given that the Independence Day holiday weekend typically experiences heightened travel demand.