Dow Futures indicate a downward trend, as traders monitor a surge of reports regarding potential negotiations to resolve the Iran conflict. Oil hovers above $100 a barrel once again, as the U.S. dollar strengthens and gold experiences a slight decline. In the interim, first-quarter earnings are adversely affected by losses stemming from loans extended to defunct companies.

Dow futures experienced a slight decline on Thursday, while oil prices saw an increase, as investors evaluated the potential for a resolution to the conflict in Iran. By 04:18, the contract had declined by 203 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures had fallen by 35 points, or 0.5%, and had decreased by 156 points, or 0.6%. The primary indices on Wall Street experienced an uptick in the previous session, driven by optimism regarding potential negotiations between the U.S. and Iran aimed at resolving the nearly month-long conflict. Media reports indicated that Tehran had privately conveyed a readiness to engage in discussions with Washington, while U.S. Vice President JD Vance is reportedly considering a trip to Pakistan for negotiations as early as this weekend. Meanwhile, the source indicated that the U.S. and Israel might refrain from pursuing efforts to assassinate Iran’s foreign minister or parliament speaker as dialogues persist. Nonetheless, the communication, as has been the case throughout much of this conflict, remains ambiguous. The two parties seem to be significantly divergent in their requirements for conditions to cease hostilities, while the Pentagon is actively working to deploy additional ground forces in the Middle East. Simultaneously, officials in Israel, who have collaborated with the U.S. in a campaign against Iran, are reportedly apprehensive that the U.S. may announce a one-month ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consequently initiated a new two-day campaign aimed at significantly degrading Iran’s military capabilities, according to reports.

As traders navigate a plethora of developments emerging from the Middle East, oil prices have once more settled above the $100 per barrel mark on Thursday. The futures contract expiring in May for Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last observed at an increase of 3.4%, priced at $105.73 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures experienced an increase of 3.7%, reaching $93.67 per barrel. Iran is currently assessing a 15-point peace proposal put forth by the U.S., while the White House has cautioned that further air strikes will target the nation if an agreement is not reached. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that U.S. President Donald Trump “does not bluff and […] is prepared to unleash hell,” yet it has been reported that Trump has expressed to aides his desire to bring the war to a swift conclusion. Analysts noted that the Trump administration has announced an official date of May 14-15 for the president’s forthcoming trip to China, potentially indicating that the U.S. anticipates the war to be fully resolved by that time. Importantly, in the midst of the myriad of reports and rumors, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. The crucial maritime route, responsible for the transit of approximately 20% of global oil and natural gas, has been nearly closed due to the looming threat of Iranian assaults for several weeks. Oil prices have experienced a slight moderation from a peak of nearly $120 a barrel earlier this month, although they remain significantly elevated compared to levels observed before the onset of the war in late February.

Oil prices remaining above $100 a barrel have contributed to the resilience of the U.S. dollar, despite a slight improvement in risk sentiment, analysts noted in their report. The greenback has emerged as a preferred safe haven for investors since the onset of the conflict, appreciating by approximately 2% over the last month. A measure of the dollar’s performance against a collection of foreign currencies, which has experienced volatility this week due to the influx of news regarding the Iran conflict, was last observed up by 0.1% at 99.70. “Analysts, including Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner, noted that markets may require more persuasive headlines regarding de-escalation to drive the dollar significantly lower from this point.”

The relative strength of the dollar has played a significant role in suppressing any potential recovery in gold prices, which have declined since the onset of the war from a record high reached earlier this year. Some commentators have suggested that gold’s surge in recent months has diminished its relative appeal as investors seek alternative safe havens amid a conflict that has expanded to involve nations throughout the Middle East. Concurrently, the anticipation that the Federal Reserve will respond to an energy-driven inflation surge by maintaining elevated interest rates for an extended period has diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets such as bullion. Spot gold experienced a decline of 1.7%, trading at $4,432.27 per ounce as of 05:02. Gold futures experienced a decline of 2.7%, settling at $4,461.59 per ounce. Gold is currently exhibiting trading behavior within a clearly established range. The market must establish a foothold in the mid-$4,500s and maintain this level to alter the prevailing sentiment. Until that occurs, rallies may encounter resistance and transform into selling opportunities,” Max Baecker stated.

In other developments, Jefferies Financial reported results that fell short of investor expectations, with losses on loans to bankrupt companies eclipsing robust investment banking returns in the first quarter. Jefferies reported that, after accounting for compensation and taxes, it had recorded $17 million in losses associated with the collapse of British lender Market Financial Solutions and First Brands, an American auto-parts supplier that filed for bankruptcy. In an interview with Reuters, Jefferies President Brian Friedman indicated that the conditions for dealmaking and initial public offerings are expected to remain “increasingly strong,” provided there is a “reasonable end” to the Iran war. In conjunction with a series of prospective high-profile public offerings in the technology sector anticipated later this year, over $1 trillion in deals have been disclosed thus far in 2026, reflecting a 27% increase compared to the same period in 2025, as reported by Dealogic data.