JUST as they missed out on much of the upside during the sharp rally in Dow Futures in December, Aussie growers have been shielded from a recent downside in US markets.
Analysts are pointing to the falling Australian dollar as one of the major contributing factors to physical Aussie prices remaining relatively stable.
Hannah Janson, commodity analyst with Profarmer, said the rally on Dow Futures exchanges, coupled with the appreciating US dollar, was making US products increasingly uncompetitive in the world market.
“But the flipside of this is these factors are helping make Aussie product more competitive into international markets.”
Ms Janson said there had not been a great deal of new fundamental news over the festive period, but said the release of the finer details of Russian wheat export restrictions had proved bearish for the market.
“The Russian export ban isn’t going to kick in until the first of February, by which point most of their wheat export program will have been completed. Hence it’s unlikely to have the considerable impact on world wheat supply as many previously thought.”
Lloyd George, AgScientia, said the market was sitting relatively tight in the lead up to next week’s US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.
“Most of the movements in the market this week have been due to technical factors, rather than anything fundamental, as investors get themselves in a position they are comfortable within the lead up to the report.”
These technical factors also played a part in seeing increased volatility in March futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) which crashed well below US600 cents a bushel to US581c/bu on Monday before rebounding to US588c/bu on Wednesday.
“The speculative funds that had a long position on wheat had been selling down their position into a holiday market which had fewer buyers to offset selling. This had an influence in bringing prices back,” Ms Janson said.
Highs have passed: George