Dow futures indicate a positive trajectory in anticipation of the crucial June nonfarm payrolls report release. Investors were meticulously analyzing a preliminary trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, as the White House endeavors to establish agreements with individual nations, with the expiration of postponed “reciprocal” tariffs imminent.
In other developments, U.S. House Republican leaders encounter opposition as they strive to conclude and advance President Donald Trump’s hallmark policy legislation ahead of a self-imposed deadline of July Fourth.

U.S. stock futures experienced a modest uptick on Thursday, as investors prepared for significant employment data and evaluated the prospects for U.S. trade negotiations. Futures contracts for the Dow have increased by 39 points, representing a 0.1% rise, while S&P 500 futures have gained 6 points, also a 0.1% increase. Additionally, Nasdaq 100 futures have seen an uptick of 33 points, equating to a 0.1% rise. Thursday marks the concluding day of trading in the U.S. prior to the market’s closure for the July 4 holiday. On Wednesday, the primary indices on Wall Street experienced notable gains, as the benchmark S&P 500 and the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite achieved new record closing levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, concluding the session largely flat, yet the blue-chip index stayed within close proximity to its historical high.

Sentiment was strengthened by Trump’s announcement of a trade agreement with Vietnam, a significant supplier of imported goods such as footwear and athletic apparel. Meanwhile, prominent technology stocks experienced an upward movement, including Nvidia and Apple. Stocks experienced a setback due to an unforeseen decline in a monthly measure of U.S. private payrolls; however, market participants largely viewed this data point as an indication that the Federal Reserve is likely to implement significant interest rate cuts in the near future.

A more significant indicator of the American labor market is set to be released on Thursday. Analysts anticipate that the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June nonfarm payrolls report will indicate that the U.S. economy added 111,000 positions, a decrease from the 139,000 recorded in May. The unemployment rate is projected to increase marginally to 4.3% from 4.2%. The ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday indicated that, in the context of tariff-induced economic uncertainty, companies are reducing hiring activities and employees are increasingly hesitant to change jobs. Nonetheless, a minimal correlation exists between the ADP and BLS figures.

Federal Reserve policymakers, whose responsibilities include striving for maximum employment, will likely monitor incoming labor market data closely, particularly as they remain cautious about the effects of Trump’s tariff agenda on the broader economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, under mounting pressure from Trump to expedite rate cuts, has endorsed a measured stance regarding future interest rate adjustments. However, he indicated this week that the central bank might lower borrowing costs during its four remaining policy meetings this year.

On Wednesday, stocks recovered from their initial declines following Trump’s announcement of a trade agreement with Vietnam, which will impose a 20% tariff on imports from the Southeast Asian country. Analysts observed that this rate was below the severe “reciprocal” levy introduced by Trump during his “Liberation Day” event in early April. Shares in Nike and other athletic-wear companies that source products from Vietnam experienced an uptick. The agreement imposes a 40% tariff on what is referred to as “transshipping,” a decision that may have indirect repercussions for China. The White House asserts that nations such as Vietnam have emerged as channels for Chinese products to reach the U.S. while circumventing increased American tariffs. Although preliminary and less detailed than conventional trade agreements, the deal was perceived as a sign that the Trump administration was advancing towards new trade accords ahead of the reinstatement of the currently suspended reciprocal tariffs later this month. Trump has previously established trade truces with China and Britain, and has suggested the potential for a deal with India.

In a notable development, the U.S. Commerce Department has removed limitations on the export of chip design technology to China, as indicated by company statements released on Wednesday evening. This action aligns with a recent trade agreement established between Washington and Beijing. Shares of chip designers Synopsys and Cadence Design Systems experienced a significant increase following the announcements, as indicated by 24-hour trading data. Synopsys experienced an increase of 5.8%, reaching a value of $553.67, whereas Cadence saw a rise of 4.7%, attaining a price of $325.58. Synopsys stated that it was notified by the U.S. Department of Commerce that the restrictions on its exports to China, which were implemented in late May, have now been lifted effective immediately. The company announced that it is currently “working to restore access to the recently restricted products in China.”

Investors are closely monitoring the situation in Washington, where negotiations among Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives extend into the early hours regarding the passage of the Senate’s version of a substantial, Trump-supported tax cuts and spending bill. Republican lawmakers are swiftly addressing internal concerns regarding a comprehensive array of proposals, which would, among various reforms, prolong the tax cuts enacted in 2017 under Trump and introduce additional tax incentives while increasing funding for defense and border security.

Securing sufficient Republican backing for the bill is essential, considering the party’s slim majorities in Congress and the cohesive opposition from Democrats. However, certain conservative lawmakers have expressed apprehensions that the bill could exacerbate the country’s already swelling debt burden and have highlighted worries regarding its suggested reductions to Medicaid, a federal initiative aimed at assisting low-income Americans. Republican leaders find themselves facing a pressing timeline. Trump has established a deadline of July 4th for the approval of the bill by Congress, aiming for it to be on his desk for signature into law.