Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 +0.19%) this morning are up +0.20% as a tentative deal by the U.S. Congress to avert a government shutdown gives equity prices a lift. European markets and most Asian markets are closed today for the Labor Day and May Day holidays. U.S. House and Senate members reached a bipartisan deal late Sunday night on a $ 1.1 trillion spending plan that would keep the government open through September 30. Gains in stocks were limited on global growth concerns after manufacturing activity in China slowed more than expected last month. Another negative is weak crude oil prices that is putting pressure on energy producing stocks. Jun WTI crude oil CLM17 -0.49%) is down -0.49% after Libya’s National Oil Corp said Libya’s crude production rose to more than 700,000 bpd as crude from the Sharara field, the country’s biggest, started flowing to the Zawiya refinery after a 3-week closure. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +0.59%, Australia +0.55%, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and India all closed for holiday. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 1-1/4 month high as exporter stocks rallied on a weaker yen as USD/JPY climbed to a 1-month high. The weaker yen boosts earnings prospects for exporting companies.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) is up +0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.04%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.17% at a 1-month high.
Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM17 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks.
The China Apr manufacturing PMI fell -0.6 to 51.2, weaker than expectations of -0.1 to 51.7 and the slowest pace of expansion in 6 months.
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Mar personal spending (expected +0.2%, Feb +0.1%) and Mar personal income (expected +0.3%, Feb +0.4%), (2) Mar PCE deflator (expected -0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y) and Mar core PCE deflator (expected -0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Feb +0.2% and +1.8% y/y), (3) final-Apr Markit manufacturing PMI (expected unch at 52.8, prelim-Apr -0.5 to 52.8), (4) Apr ISM manufacturing index (expected -0.7 to 56.5, Mar -0.5 to 57.2), (5) Mar construction spending (expected +0.5%, Feb +0.8%), (6) USDA weekly grain export inspections, (7) USDA crop conditions and planting progress.
Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Cardinal Health (consensus $ 1.46), Loews (0.66), Dish (0.67), AMD (-0.04), Noble Energy (-0.14), Vornado Realty Trust (1.26), Edison Intl (0.90), Flowserver (0.19).
U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences: Deutsche Bank Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, Macquarie Group Ltd Business Services Conference on Thu.
Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN -1.06%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Sector Perform’ at RBC Capital Markets with a target price of $ 64.
Autodesk (ADSK -0.62%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $ 115.
L3 Technologies (LLL -1.25%) was downgraded to ‘Equal-Weight’ from ‘Overweight’ at Barclays.
Thompson Reuters (TRI +3.70%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Canaccord Genuity.
Apartment Investment (AIV -1.60%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Mizuho Securities USA.
First Solar (FSLR +0.37%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underperform’ at Credit Suisse.
Discover Financial Services (DFS -2.69%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Deutsche Bank.
Synchrony (SYF -15.89%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.
Costamare (CMRE -3.44%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underperform’ at Credit Suisse.
Atlantic Capital Bancshares (ACBI +0.77%) was downgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.
Wesco Aircraft (WAIR -2.41%) reported Q2 preliminary net sales of $ 364.6 million, below consensus of $ 377.2 million.
TFS Financial (TFSL -1.14%) reported Q2 EPS of 8 cents, better than consensus of 7 cents.
Genworth Financial (GNW -1.46%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after it said it needs more time to convince regulators they should approve the company’s plan to sell itself to China Oceanwide Holdings Group.
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 +0.19%) this morning are up +4.75 points (+0.20%). Friday’s closes: S&P 500 -0.19%, Dow Jones -0.19%, Nasdaq +0.22%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed lower on the +0.7% increase in U.S. Q1 GDP (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of +1.0% (q/q annualized) and the slowest pace of expansion in 3 years. Stocks were also undercut by the unexpected -1.0 point decline in the U.S. Apr University of Michigan consumer sentiment to 97.0, weaker than expectations of unch at 98.0.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM17 -0.10%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Friday’s closes: TYM7 +2.50, FVM7 +0.50. Jun 10-year T-notes on Friday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Q1 GDP of +0.7% and on increased safe-haven demand with the weakness in stocks. T-note prices were undercut by signs of rising wage pressures after the U.S. Q1 employment cost index rose +0.8%, stronger than expectations of +0.6% and the largest increase in 9 years.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) this morning is up +0.013 (+0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0004 (+0.04%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18 (+0.17%) at a 1-month high. Friday’s closes: Dollar index -0.026 (-0.02%), EUR/USD +0.0022 (+0.20%), USD/JPY +0.23 (+0.21%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Q1 GDP report of +0.7%, which may push the Fed to delay any additional rate hikes. There was also strength in EUR/USD after Eurozone Apr core CPI rose +1.2% y/y, the biggest increase in 3-3/4 years which may prompt the ECB to be less dovish.
Jun WTI crude oil prices (CLM17 -0.49%) this morning are down -24 cents (-0.49%) and Jun gasoline (RBM17 -0.49%) is -0.0081 (-0.52%). Friday’s closes: Jun crude +0.36 (+0.74%), Jun gasoline -0.0062 (-0.40%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Friday settled mixed. Crude oil prices wre boosted by signs of reduced global crude production after the Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) said that OPEC and non-OPEC crude cuts in Mar rose to 98% of compliance versus 94% in Feb. Crude oil prices were also supported by a weaker dollar. Crude oil prices were undercut by the fall in the crack spread to a 1-3/4 month low, which may reduce refinery demand for crude to refine into gasoline and distillate products, and by the 9-rig increase in U.S. active oil rigs to a 2-year high of 697 rigs.
|Monday, May 1|
|US||0830 ET||Mar personal spending expected +0.2%, Feb +0.1%. Mar personal income expected +0.3%, Feb +0.4%.|
|0830 ET||Mar PCE deflator expected -0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y. Mar core PCE deflator expected -0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Feb +0.2% and +1.8% y/y.|
|0945 ET||Final-Apr Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 52.8, prelim-Apr -0.5 to 52.8.|
|1000 ET||Apr ISM manufacturing index expected -0.7 to 56.5, Mar -0.5 to 57.2. Apr ISM new orders sub-index, Mar -0.6 to 64.5. Apr ISM employment sub-index, Mar +4.7 to 58.9. Apr ISM prices paid sub-index expected -3.0 to 67.5, Mar +2.5 to 70.5.|
|1000 ET||Mar construction spending expected +0.5%, Feb +0.8%.|
|1100 ET||USDA weekly grain export inspections.|
|1600 ET||USDA crop conditions and planting progress.|
|Tuesday, May 2|
|US||1030 ET||FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.|
|n/a||Apr total vehicle sales expected 17.15 million, Mar 16.53 million. Apr domestic vehicle sales expected 13.40 million, Mar 12.97 million.|
|Cardinal Health Inc||CAH US||Bef-mkt||Q3 2017 Earnings Release||Q3 17||1.458|
|GGP Inc||GGP US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.364|
|CMS Energy Corp||CMS US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.649|
|Loews Corp||L US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.66|
|DISH Network Corp||DISH US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.672|
|Affiliated Managers Group Inc||AMG US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||3.18|
|Cardinal Health Inc||CAH US||08:30||Q3 2017 Earnings Call||Q3 17|
|Affiliated Managers Group Inc||AMG US||08:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|American Express Co||AXP US||09:00||Annual General Meeting|
|GGP Inc||GGP US||09:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|CMS Energy Corp||CMS US||09:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Boeing Co/The||BA US||10:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Eli Lilly & Co||LLY US||11:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Loews Corp||L US||11:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Aflac Inc||AFL US||Annual General Meeting|
|DISH Network Corp||DISH US||Annual General Meeting|
|Xcel Energy Inc||XEL US||Roadshow|
|DISH Network Corp||DISH US||12:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Advanced Micro Devices Inc||AMD US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||(0.042)|
|Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc||ARE US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||1.454|
|Noble Energy Inc||NBL US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||(0.137)|
|Vornado Realty Trust||VNO US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||1.26|
|Edison International||EIX US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.895|
|Flowserve Corp||FLS US||16:05||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.186|
|Edison International||EIX US||16:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Advanced Micro Devices Inc||AMD US||17:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|