Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 +0.19%) this morning are up +0.20% as a tentative deal by the U.S. Congress to avert a government shutdown gives equity prices a lift. European markets and most Asian markets are closed today for the Labor Day and May Day holidays. U.S. House and Senate members reached a bipartisan deal late Sunday night on a $ 1.1 trillion spending plan that would keep the government open through September 30. Gains in stocks were limited on global growth concerns after manufacturing activity in China slowed more than expected last month. Another negative is weak crude oil prices that is putting pressure on energy producing stocks. Jun WTI crude oil CLM17 -0.49%) is down -0.49% after Libya’s National Oil Corp said Libya’s crude production rose to more than 700,000 bpd as crude from the Sharara field, the country’s biggest, started flowing to the Zawiya refinery after a 3-week closure. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +0.59%, Australia +0.55%, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and India all closed for holiday. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 1-1/4 month high as exporter stocks rallied on a weaker yen as USD/JPY climbed to a 1-month high. The weaker yen boosts earnings prospects for exporting companies.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) is up +0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.04%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.17% at a 1-month high.

Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM17 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks.

The China Apr manufacturing PMI fell -0.6 to 51.2, weaker than expectations of -0.1 to 51.7 and the slowest pace of expansion in 6 months.


Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Mar personal spending (expected +0.2%, Feb +0.1%) and Mar personal income (expected +0.3%, Feb +0.4%), (2) Mar PCE deflator (expected -0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y) and Mar core PCE deflator (expected -0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Feb +0.2% and +1.8% y/y), (3) final-Apr Markit manufacturing PMI (expected unch at 52.8, prelim-Apr -0.5 to 52.8), (4) Apr ISM manufacturing index (expected -0.7 to 56.5, Mar -0.5 to 57.2), (5) Mar construction spending (expected +0.5%, Feb +0.8%), (6) USDA weekly grain export inspections, (7) USDA crop conditions and planting progress.

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Cardinal Health (consensus $ 1.46), Loews (0.66), Dish (0.67), AMD (-0.04), Noble Energy (-0.14), Vornado Realty Trust (1.26), Edison Intl (0.90), Flowserver (0.19).

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences: Deutsche Bank Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, Macquarie Group Ltd Business Services Conference on Thu.


Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN -1.06%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Sector Perform’ at RBC Capital Markets with a target price of $ 64.

Autodesk (ADSK -0.62%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $ 115.

L3 Technologies (LLL -1.25%) was downgraded to ‘Equal-Weight’ from ‘Overweight’ at Barclays.

Thompson Reuters (TRI +3.70%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Canaccord Genuity.

Apartment Investment (AIV -1.60%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Mizuho Securities USA.

First Solar (FSLR +0.37%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underperform’ at Credit Suisse.

Discover Financial Services (DFS -2.69%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Deutsche Bank.

Synchrony (SYF -15.89%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

Costamare (CMRE -3.44%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underperform’ at Credit Suisse.

Atlantic Capital Bancshares (ACBI +0.77%) was downgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

Wesco Aircraft (WAIR -2.41%) reported Q2 preliminary net sales of $ 364.6 million, below consensus of $ 377.2 million.

TFS Financial (TFSL -1.14%) reported Q2 EPS of 8 cents, better than consensus of 7 cents.

Genworth Financial (GNW -1.46%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after it said it needs more time to convince regulators they should approve the company’s plan to sell itself to China Oceanwide Holdings Group.


Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 +0.19%) this morning are up +4.75 points (+0.20%). Friday’s closes: S&P 500 -0.19%, Dow Jones -0.19%, Nasdaq +0.22%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed lower on the +0.7% increase in U.S. Q1 GDP (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of +1.0% (q/q annualized) and the slowest pace of expansion in 3 years. Stocks were also undercut by the unexpected -1.0 point decline in the U.S. Apr University of Michigan consumer sentiment to 97.0, weaker than expectations of unch at 98.0.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM17 -0.10%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Friday’s closes: TYM7 +2.50, FVM7 +0.50. Jun 10-year T-notes on Friday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Q1 GDP of +0.7% and on increased safe-haven demand with the weakness in stocks. T-note prices were undercut by signs of rising wage pressures after the U.S. Q1 employment cost index rose +0.8%, stronger than expectations of +0.6% and the largest increase in 9 years.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) this morning is up +0.013 (+0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0004 (+0.04%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18 (+0.17%) at a 1-month high. Friday’s closes: Dollar index -0.026 (-0.02%), EUR/USD +0.0022 (+0.20%), USD/JPY +0.23 (+0.21%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Q1 GDP report of +0.7%, which may push the Fed to delay any additional rate hikes. There was also strength in EUR/USD after Eurozone Apr core CPI rose +1.2% y/y, the biggest increase in 3-3/4 years which may prompt the ECB to be less dovish.

Jun WTI crude oil prices (CLM17 -0.49%) this morning are down -24 cents (-0.49%) and Jun gasoline (RBM17 -0.49%) is -0.0081 (-0.52%). Friday’s closes: Jun crude +0.36 (+0.74%), Jun gasoline -0.0062 (-0.40%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Friday settled mixed. Crude oil prices wre boosted by signs of reduced global crude production after the Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) said that OPEC and non-OPEC crude cuts in Mar rose to 98% of compliance versus 94% in Feb. Crude oil prices were also supported by a weaker dollar. Crude oil prices were undercut by the fall in the crack spread to a 1-3/4 month low, which may reduce refinery demand for crude to refine into gasoline and distillate products, and by the 9-rig increase in U.S. active oil rigs to a 2-year high of 697 rigs.


Monday, May 1
US0830 ETMar personal spending expected +0.2%, Feb +0.1%. Mar personal income expected +0.3%, Feb +0.4%.
0830 ETMar PCE deflator expected -0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y. Mar core PCE deflator expected -0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Feb +0.2% and +1.8% y/y.
0945 ETFinal-Apr Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 52.8, prelim-Apr -0.5 to 52.8.
1000 ETApr ISM manufacturing index expected -0.7 to 56.5, Mar -0.5 to 57.2. Apr ISM new orders sub-index, Mar -0.6 to 64.5. Apr ISM employment sub-index, Mar +4.7 to 58.9. Apr ISM prices paid sub-index expected -3.0 to 67.5, Mar +2.5 to 70.5.
1000 ETMar construction spending expected +0.5%, Feb +0.8%.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1600 ETUSDA crop conditions and planting progress.
Tuesday, May 2
US1030 ETFOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
n/aApr total vehicle sales expected 17.15 million, Mar 16.53 million. Apr domestic vehicle sales expected 13.40 million, Mar 12.97 million.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR 05/01/2017
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Cardinal Health IncCAH USBef-mktQ3 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ3 171.458
GGP IncGGP USBef-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.364
CMS Energy CorpCMS USBef-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.649
Loews CorpL USBef-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.66
DISH Network CorpDISH USBef-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.672
Affiliated Managers Group IncAMG USBef-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 173.18
Cardinal Health IncCAH US08:30Q3 2017 Earnings CallQ3 17
Affiliated Managers Group IncAMG US08:30Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
American Express CoAXP US09:00Annual General Meeting
GGP IncGGP US09:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
CMS Energy CorpCMS US09:30Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Boeing Co/TheBA US10:00Annual General Meeting
Eli Lilly & CoLLY US11:00Annual General Meeting
Loews CorpL US11:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Aflac IncAFL USAnnual General Meeting
DISH Network CorpDISH USAnnual General Meeting
Xcel Energy IncXEL USRoadshow
DISH Network CorpDISH US12:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Advanced Micro Devices IncAMD USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 17(0.042)
Alexandria Real Estate Equities IncARE USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 171.454
Noble Energy IncNBL USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 17(0.137)
Vornado Realty TrustVNO USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 171.26
Edison InternationalEIX USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.895
Flowserve CorpFLS US16:05Q1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.186
Edison InternationalEIX US16:30Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Advanced Micro Devices IncAMD US17:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17