Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 -0.12%) this morning are trading mildly lower on a -2% overnight sell-off in Apple on disappointing quarterly earnings results as iPhone sales are being slowed as people wait for upgrades on new versions. The markets are waiting for outcome of today’s FOMC meeting, which is expected to produce unchanged rates. European stocks are little changed this morning as the markets await today’s French presidential debate between centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen in the home stretch to Sunday’s French presidential election. Today’s Eurozone Q1 GDP report of +0.5% q/q and +1.7% y/y was in line with market expectations but was strong compared with U.S. Q1 growth of +0.7% (q/q annualized) and was supportive for the euro and European stocks. The UK FTSE is down -0.31% this morning as the markets worry that Brexit negotiations are getting off on the wrong foot with tension between UK Prime Minister May and EU officials after reports of a frosty dinner meeting earlier this week where Ms. May said that the UK would refuse to pay any exit fee versus EU demands for 100 billion euros.

China’s Shanghai Composite index today fell by another -0.27% on continued concern about the government’s crackdown on leverage and improper trading. However, the Chinese government is making an effort to reassure investors and calm market nerves. The Chinese central bank today injected a large amount of daily liquidity to calm nerves. A news service run by the Chinese central bank urged investors not to overreact to tougher regulations in a front-page article. The Japanese and Hong Kong markets were closed today for holidays. Other Asian stock markets today were mixed: Taiwan +0.14%, Australia -0.98%, Singapore +0.83%, India -0.09%, Turkey -0.08%.


Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +2.7% with purchase sub-index -1.0% and refi sub-index +7.2%), (2) Apr ADP employment (expected +178,000, Mar +263,000), (3) final-Apr Markit services PMI (expected unrevised at 52.5, prelim-Apr -0.3 to 52.5), (4) Apr ISM non-manufacturing PMI (expected +0.6 to 55.8, Mar -2.4 to 55.2), (5) 2-day FOMC meeting concludes with policy announcement, (6) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Facebook (consensus $ 1.12), Time-Warner (1.46), ADP (1.23), Excelon (0.62), Delphia Automotive (1.46), Garmin (0.45), Humana (2.75), Estee Lauder (0.73), Yum Brands (0.60), Southern Co (0.60), ICE (0.73), Molson Coors (1.29), Prudential Financial (2.64), Lincoln National (1.61), Kraft Heinz (0.85), AIG (1.05), Murphy Oil (-0.01), Williams Cos (0.21), Metlife (1.28), Level 3 Communications (0.33).

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: Liberty Oilfield Services (BDFC), Antero Resources Midstream Management (AMGP), Biohaven Pharmaceutical (BHVN), UroGen Pharma (URGN).

Equity conferences: Deutsche Bank Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, Macquarie Group Ltd Business Services Conference on Thu.


Apple (AAPL +0.63%) fell -2.3% in after-hours trading after saying that it is selling fewer phones because consumers are waiting for upgrades on newer models.

Weight Watchers (WTW -0.56%) rallied 13% in after-hours trading after boosting its annual EPS guidance.

FireEye (FEYE -2.16%) rallied 12% in after-hours trading after saying that it expects to be profitable by the end of this year.

First Solar (FSLR +2.61%) rallied 6% in after-hours trading after raising its 2017 guidance, which gave other solar stocks a boost as well.

Mondelez (MDLZ -0.73%)rallied more than 2% in after-hours trading after reporting above-consensus Q1 EPS.

Twilio (TWLO -1.31%) plunged nearly 30% in after-hours trading after cutting its annual revenue guidance.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM +1.66%) fell more than 10% in after-hours trading after its Q2 guidance missed estimates.

Etsy (ETSY +2.98%) fell -10% in after-hours trading after missing Q1 revenue and announcing that its CEO will step down.


Jun E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading mildly lower due to overnight weakness in Apple and some concern about the outcome of today’s FOMC meeting. Tuesday’s closes: S&P 500 +0.12%, Dow Jones +0.17%, Nasdaq +0.06%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed slightly higher on the -3.8 bp drop in the 10-year T-note yield to 2.280% and on continued support from positive Q1 earnings reports. Stocks were undercut by the much weaker-than-expected U.S. vehicles sales report, which caused a plunge in auto stocks (Ford -4.4%, GM -2.9%). Stocks were also undercut by the -2.42% sell-off in June crude oil prices which undercut oil stocks.

Jun 10-year T-note prices this morning are unchanged as the market waits for the FOMC meeting outcome and the Treasury’s quarterly funding announcement. Tuesday’s closes: TYM7 +7.50, FVM7 +5.50. Jun 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed higher on the -2.42% sell-off June crude oil prices, which caused a -3.3 bp drop in the U.S. 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to 1.89%, and on the weak U.S. April vehicle sales report.

The dollar index is mildly higher this morning by +0.117 points (+0.12%), while EUR/USD is down -0.0019 (-0.17%) and USD/JPY is up +0.20 (+0.18%). Tuesday’s closes: Dollar index -0.101 (-0.10%), EUR/USD +0.0031 (+0.28%), USD/JPY +0.15 (+0.13%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed slightly lower on the weak U.S. vehicle sales report, which kept U.S. consumer spending in a weak light. The yen fell to a new 1-month low against the dollar on reduced safe-haven demand for the yen with global stock market strength and reduced concerns about Sunday’s French presidential election.

June WTI crude oil prices are up +0.48 (+1.01%) on a partial snap-back after Tuesday’s sharp losses. June gasoline is up +0.0304 (+1.09%). Tuesday’s closes: Jun crude -1.18 (-2.42%), Jun gasoline -0.0136 (-0.89%). June crude oil prices on Tuesday closed sharply lower on expectations for a rise in U.S. product inventories in Wednesday’s EIA report as the surplus simply moves from crude oil to products. Crude oil prices were also undercut by a larger than expected narrowing of Saudi Arabia’s government budget deficit due to improved non-oil income, which means less pressure on Saudi Arabia to support oil prices. Oil prices were boosted by news that Russian April crude oil output fell by -0.5% to an average of 10.995 million bpd, which is -252,000 bpd below the Oct level but less than the promised -300,000 bpd cut.

Wednesday, May 3
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +2.7% with purchase sub-index -1.0% and refi sub-index +7.2%.
0815 ETApr ADP employment change expected +178,000, Mar +263,000.
0830 ETTreasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $ 24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $ 20 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $ 12 billion) to be auctioned May 9-11 in the May quarterly refunding.
0945 ETRevised Apr Markit services PMI expected unrevised at 52.5, prelim-Apr -0.3 to 52.5. Revised Apr Markit composite PMI, Mar -0.3 to 52.7.
1000 ETApr ISM non-manufacturing PMI expected +0.6 to 55.8, Mar -2.4 to 55.2.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1400 ETFOMC announces interest rate decision; fed funds target range expected unchanged at 0.75%-1.00%.
Thursday, May 4
US0730 ETApr Challenger job cuts, Mar -2.0% y/y.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -8,000 to 249,000, previous +14,000 to 257,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +2,000 to 1.990 million, previous +10,000 to 1.988 million.
0830 ETMar trade balance expected -$ 44.5 billion, Feb -$ 43.6 billion.
0830 ETQ1 non-farm productivity expected unch, Q4 +1.3%. Q1 unit labor costs expected +2.7%, Q4 +1.7%.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ETMar factory orders expected +0.4%, Feb +1.0% and +0.4% ex transportation.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR 05/03/2017
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Automatic Data Processing IncADP USBef-mktQ3 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ3 171.229
Time Warner IncTWX USBef-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 171.456
NiSource IncNI USBef-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.673
Reynolds American IncRAI USBef-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.568
Exelon CorpEXC USBef-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.618
Delphi Automotive PLCDLPH USBef-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 171.458
Garmin LtdGRMN USBef-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.453
Clorox Co/TheCLX US6:30Q3 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ3 171.297
Harris CorpHRS US6:30Q3 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ3 171.299
Humana IncHUM US6:30Q1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 172.75
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/TheEL US6:45Q3 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ3 170.729
Yum! Brands IncYUM US7:00Q1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.601
Southern Co/TheSO US7:30Q1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.599
Intercontinental Exchange IncICE US7:30Q1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.734
Molson Coors Brewing CoTAP US8:00Q1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 171.287
Assurant IncAIZ US8:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Yum! Brands IncYUM US8:15Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Automatic Data Processing IncADP US8:30Q3 2017 Earnings CallQ3 17
Time Warner IncTWX US8:30Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Harris CorpHRS US8:30Q3 2017 Earnings CallQ3 17
Verisk Analytics IncVRSK US8:30Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
PulteGroup IncPHM US8:30Annual General Meeting
Intercontinental Exchange IncICE US8:30Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Delphi Automotive PLCDLPH US8:30Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
NiSource IncNI US9:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Allstate Corp/TheALL US9:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Anadarko Petroleum CorpAPC US9:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
General Dynamics CorpGD US9:00Annual General Meeting
Humana IncHUM US9:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
PepsiCo IncPEP US9:00Annual General Meeting
FMC CorpFMC US9:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Philip Morris International IncPM US9:00Annual General Meeting
Global Payments IncGPN US9:30Annual General Meeting
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/TheEL US9:30Q3 2017 Earnings CallQ3 17
Hershey Co/TheHSY US10:00Annual General Meeting
Phillips 66PSX US10:00Annual General Meeting
CH Robinson Worldwide IncCHRW US10:00Analyst and Investor Day
Garmin LtdGRMN US10:30Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Molson Coors Brewing CoTAP US11:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Newfield Exploration CoNFX US11:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Devon Energy CorpDVN US11:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Valero Energy CorpVLO US11:00Annual General Meeting
Exelon CorpEXC US11:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
ONEOK IncOKE US11:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Federal Realty Investment TrustFRT USAnnual General Meeting
Cabot Oil & Gas CorpCOG USAnnual General Meeting
Eversource EnergyES USAnnual General Meeting
International Flavors & Fragrances IncIFF USAnnual General Meeting
Molson Coors Brewing CoTAP US13:00Q1 2017 Earnings Call – Follow Up SessionQ1 17
Southern Co/TheSO US13:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
IDEXX Laboratories IncIDXX US13:00Annual General Meeting
Clorox Co/TheCLX US13:30Q3 2017 Earnings CallQ3 17
Stryker CorpSYK US14:00Annual General Meeting
Prudential Financial IncPRU USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 172.64
Concho Resources IncCXO USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.286
Lincoln National CorpLNC USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 171.614
CenturyLink IncCTL USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.532
Kraft Heinz Co/TheKHC USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.853
American International Group IncAIG USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 171.048
Murphy Oil CorpMUR USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 17-0.012
Albemarle CorpALB USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.956
Williams Cos Inc/TheWMB USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.205
MetLife IncMET USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 171.275
CF Industries Holdings IncCF USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 17-0.002
Federal Realty Investment TrustFRT USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 171.429
Alliant Energy CorpLNT USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.436
Facebook IncFB US16:00Q1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 171.118
American Water Works Co IncAWK USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.525
Qorvo IncQRVO US16:00Q4 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ4 170.809
Transocean LtdRIG USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 17-0.086
Pioneer Natural Resources CoPXD USAft-mktQ1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.165
Level 3 Communications IncLVLT US16:15Q1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 170.326
CenturyLink IncCTL US16:30Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Prologis IncPLD US16:30Annual General Meeting
Kraft Heinz Co/TheKHC US17:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Facebook IncFB US17:00Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17
Qorvo IncQRVO US17:00Q4 2017 Earnings CallQ4 17
Level 3 Communications IncLVLT US17:30Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 17