June E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 +0.26%) this morning are trading mildly higher by +0.25% on carry-over support from strong European stocks. The markets are looking forward to a scheduled Obamacare repeal-and-replace vote today by the House. House Republican leaders say they have the votes but the vote count is expected to be close.
The Euro Stoxx 50 index today is up +0.84% on positive earnings news and increased confidence that centrist Emmanuel Macron will win Sunday’s French presidential election against far-right Marine Le Pen. The two candidates brawled last night in their only debate with one snap poll deeming Macron the winner of the debate by 63%-34%. The polls show Macron with continued support of about 60%-40%, little changed from recent levels. Oddschecker has the betting odds at 90%-15% in favor of Macron against Le Pen.
China’s Shanghai Composite index today fell -0.25% on continued concern about the government’s crackdown on leverage and its increased regulatory scrutiny. Chinese stocks were also undercut by news that the April Caixin China services PMI fell by -0.7 points to 51.5 from 52.2 in March. The Japanese markets today were closed for a second day for a national holiday. The other main Asian stock markets today closed mixed: Hong Kong -0.05%, Taiwan +0.12%, Australia -0.27%, Singapore -0.28%, South Korea +0.97%, India +0.77%, Turkey -0.19%.
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Apr Challenger job cuts (Mar -2.0% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -8,000 to 249,000, previous +14,000 to 257,000) and continuing claims (expected +2,000 to 1.990 million, previous +10,000 to 1.988 million), (3) Mar U.S. trade deficit (expected -$ 44.5 billion, Feb -$ 43.6 billion), (4) Q1 non-farm productivity (expected unch, Q4 +1.3%) and Q1 unit labor costs (expected +2.7%, Q4 +1.7%), (5) Mar factory orders (expected +0.4%, Feb +1.0% and +0.4% ex transportation), (6) USDA weekly Export Sales.
Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Viacom (consensus $ 0.60), Scripps Networks (1.19), Regeneron (3.08), Church & Dwight (0.46), Occidental Petroleum (0.08), Kellogg (1.00), Apache (0.14), CBS (0.93), Marathon Oil (-0.09), Motorola Solutions (0.57), Monster Beverage (0.32), Fluor (0.67).
U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: Ovid Therapeutics (OVID), KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF), TPG Pace Energy Holdings (TPGE/U).
Equity conferences: Deutsche Bank Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, Macquarie Group Ltd Business Services Conference on Thu.
Facebook (FB -0.64%) fell fell -1% in overnight trading after it said that it expects revenue growth to slow “meaningfully” when it slows the frequency of news-feed advertising later this year.
Tesla (TSLA -2.47%) said its Model 3 timeline is intact. Tesla Q1 adjusted EPA was larger than expected.
GoDaddy (GDDY -2.29%) fell -3% in after-hours trading after a new-share filing
AIG (AIG +0.02%) rallied by more than 1% in after-hours trading on positive Q1 EPS and a hike in stock buybacks.
Stamps.com (STMP +0.59%) rallied by +1.3% ion after-hours trading after providing positive annual EPS guidance.
Prudential Financial (PRU +0.86%) rallied by 1% in after-hours trading after a Q1 adjusted EPS beat.
Centurylink (CTL -2.04%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after missing Q1 earnings.
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE +1.79%) fell 8% in after-hours trading after a Q1 revenue miss.
Avis (CAR -2.06%) fell 6% in after-hours trading a Q1 earnings miss on higher costs and pricing pressure.
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 +0.26%) this morning are trading mildly higher by +0.25% on carry-over support from strong European stocks. Wednesday’s closes: S&P 500 -0.13%, Dow Jones +0.04%, Nasdaq -0.34%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed slightly lower on the -5 tick sell-off in June 10-year T-note futures on the increased odds for a Fed rate hike at the next meeting in June. There was also weakness in tech stocks linked to a -0.31% decline in Apple on disappointing iPhone sales. Stocks were supported by the strong US ISM non-manufacturing index (+2.3 to 57.5) and by increased confidence about the health of the U.S. economy after the Fed said that Q1 GDP weakness was transitory.
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM17 -0.22%) this morning are down -9.5 ticks on carry-over weakness from a -0.73 point drop in June bunds this morning on reduced safe-haven demand tied to increased confidence that centrist Emmanuel Macron will win Sunday’s French presidential election. Wednesday’s closes: TYM7 -5.00, FVM7 -5.50. Jun 10-year T-notes on Wednesday closed lower on the increased odds for a Fed rate hike at its June 13-14 meeting after the Fed brushed off weak Q1 GDP growth. T-notes were also undercut by firm economic data with the as-expected +177,000 increase in April ADP jobs and the +2.3 point increase to 57.5 in the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.07%) this morning is slightly lower by -0.09 (-0.09%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0045 (+0.41%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.17 (+0.15%). The euro is seeing some strength from Emmanuel Macron’s favorable showing in yesterday’s debate. Wednesday’s closes: Dollar index +0.233 (+0.24%), EUR/USD -0.0044 (-0.40%), USD/JPY +0.754 (+0.67). The dollar index on Wednesday closed mildly higher on the mildly hawkish FOMC meeting and increased odds for a June rate hike. The dollar was also boosted by the strong U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index and as-expected ADP report.
June WTI crude oil prices (CLM17 -1.34%) are down -0.58 (-1.21%) and June gasoline (RBM17 -1.98%) is down -0.0277 (-1.81%). Wednesday’s closes: Jun crude +0.16 (+0.34%), Jun gasoline +0.0202 (+1.33%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed higher on the the tighter-than-expected product inventory reports with gasoline inventories up +191,000 bbls (vs expectations of +1.0 million bbls) and distillate inventories down -562,000 (vs expectations of +1.5 million bbls). Crude oil prices were undercut by the +0.3% rise in U.S. crude oil production to a 1-3/4 yr high of 9.293 million bpd.
|Thursday, May 4|
|US||0730 ET||Apr Challenger job cuts, Mar -2.0% y/y.|
|0830 ET||Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -8,000 to 249,000, previous +14,000 to 257,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +2,000 to 1.990 million, previous +10,000 to 1.988 million.|
|0830 ET||Mar trade balance expected -$ 44.5 billion, Feb -$ 43.6 billion.|
|0830 ET||Q1 non-farm productivity expected unch, Q4 +1.3%. Q1 unit labor costs expected +2.7%, Q4 +1.7%.|
|0830 ET||USDA weekly Export Sales.|
|1000 ET||Mar factory orders expected +0.4%, Feb +1.0% and +0.4% ex transportation.|
|Friday, May 5|
|US||0830 ET||Apr non-farm payrolls expected +190,000, Mar +98,000. Apr private payrolls expected +190,000, Mar +89,000. Apr manufacturing payrolls expected +10,000, Mar +11,000. Apr unemployment rate expected +0.1 to 4.6%, Mar -0.2 to 4.5%.|
|0830 ET||Apr avg hourly earnings expected +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Apr avg weekly hours all employees expected +0.1 to 34.4 hours, Mar unch at 34.3 hours.|
|1130 ET||Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer speaks on a panel on at the Hoovers Monetary Policy Conference.|
|1245 ET||San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non-voter) delivers keynote address at the Manhattan Institute Shadow Open Market Committee event in New York.|
|1330 ET||Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks at an event at Brown University to commemorate 125 Years of Women at Brown.|
|1330 ET||Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (voter) and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren (non-voter) speak on a panel on The Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy at the Hoovers Monetary Policy Conference.|
|1500 ET||Mar consumer credit expected +$ 14.0 billion, Feb +$ 15.206 billion.|
|2400 ET||Continuing resolution expires, forcing partial U.S. government shutdown if no new spending bill is approved.|
|Scripps Networks Interactive Inc||SNI US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||1.194|
|Ball Corp||BLL US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.691|
|Global Payments Inc||GPN US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.792|
|Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc||REGN US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||3.082|
|Willis Towers Watson PLC||WLTW US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||3.344|
|Chesapeake Energy Corp||CHK US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.181|
|Quanta Services Inc||PWR US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.401|
|Gartner Inc||IT US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.606|
|PPL Corp||PPL US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.614|
|Eversource Energy||ES US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.823|
|Dominion Resources Inc/VA||D US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.956|
|Ameren Corp||AEE US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.386|
|AmerisourceBergen Corp||ABC US||6:30||Q2 2017 Earnings Release||Q2 17||1.679|
|Church & Dwight Co Inc||CHD US||7:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.462|
|Viacom Inc||VIAB US||7:00||Q2 2017 Earnings Release||Q2 17||0.599|
|Occidental Petroleum Corp||OXY US||7:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.084|
|Incyte Corp||INCY US||7:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||-0.935|
|Zoetis Inc||ZTS US||7:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.481|
|Global Payments Inc||GPN US||8:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|United Parcel Service Inc||UPS US||8:00||Annual General Meeting|
|MetLife Inc||MET US||8:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Kellogg Co||K US||8:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.995|
|Apache Corp||APA US||8:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.138|
|Gartner Inc||IT US||8:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Viacom Inc||VIAB US||8:30||Q2 2017 Earnings Call||Q2 17|
|Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc||REGN US||8:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|AmerisourceBergen Corp||ABC US||8:30||Q2 2017 Earnings Call||Q2 17|
|Zoetis Inc||ZTS US||8:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|PPL Corp||PPL US||8:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Concho Resources Inc||CXO US||9:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|American International Group Inc||AIG US||9:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Albemarle Corp||ALB US||9:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Willis Towers Watson PLC||WLTW US||9:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|CF Industries Holdings Inc||CF US||9:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Chesapeake Energy Corp||CHK US||9:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|American Water Works Co Inc||AWK US||9:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Quanta Services Inc||PWR US||9:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Eversource Energy||ES US||9:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Transocean Ltd||RIG US||9:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Archer-Daniels-Midland Co||ADM US||9:30||Annual General Meeting|
|Verizon Communications Inc||VZ US||9:30||Annual General Meeting|
|Fluor Corp||FLR US||9:30||Annual General Meeting|
|Kellogg Co||K US||9:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Williams Cos Inc/The||WMB US||9:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Scripps Networks Interactive Inc||SNI US||10:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Lincoln National Corp||LNC US||10:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Church & Dwight Co Inc||CHD US||10:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|TEGNA Inc||TGNA US||10:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Incyte Corp||INCY US||10:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Whirlpool Corp||WHR US||10:00||Investor Day|
|Alliant Energy Corp||LNT US||10:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Dominion Resources Inc/VA||D US||10:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Ameren Corp||AEE US||10:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Pioneer Natural Resources Co||PXD US||10:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Prudential Financial Inc||PRU US||11:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Ball Corp||BLL US||11:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Occidental Petroleum Corp||OXY US||11:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Murphy Oil Corp||MUR US||11:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Federal Realty Investment Trust||FRT US||11:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Progressive Corp/The||PGR US||11:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Ecolab Inc||ECL US||11:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Welltower Inc||HCN US||Annual General Meeting|
|Mettler-Toledo International Inc||MTD US||Annual General Meeting|
|DTE Energy Co||DTE US||Annual General Meeting|
|Allergan PLC||AGN US||Annual General Meeting|
|Capital One Financial Corp||COF US||Annual General Meeting|
|Eastman Chemical Co||EMN US||Annual General Meeting|
|Tesoro Corp||TSO US||Annual General Meeting|
|Equifax Inc||EFX US||Annual General Meeting|
|United Rentals Inc||URI US||Annual General Meeting|
|Kansas City Southern||KSU US||Annual General Meeting|
|Church & Dwight Co Inc||CHD US||12:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Mettler-Toledo International Inc||MTD US||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||3.086|
|Duke Energy Corp||DUK US||12:30||Annual General Meeting|
|Apache Corp||APA US||14:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|CBS Corp||CBS US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.929|
|PerkinElmer Inc||PKI US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.538|
|Consolidated Edison Inc||ED US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||1.187|
|Marathon Oil Corp||MRO US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||-0.087|
|Motorola Solutions Inc||MSI US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.572|
|Monster Beverage Corp||MNST US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.319|
|Fluor Corp||FLR US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.666|
|Stericycle Inc||SRCL US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||1.032|
|Activision Blizzard Inc||ATVI US||16:05||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 17||0.213|
|CBS Corp||CBS US||16:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Activision Blizzard Inc||ATVI US||16:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|PerkinElmer Inc||PKI US||17:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Alaska Air Group Inc||ALK US||17:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Motorola Solutions Inc||MSI US||17:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Mettler-Toledo International Inc||MTD US||17:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Monster Beverage Corp||MNST US||17:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Stericycle Inc||SRCL US||17:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|
|Fluor Corp||FLR US||17:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 17|