Dow futures are experiencing a slight decline as the trading for December approaches, with investors closely monitoring a potential decline in risk sentiment, highlighted by concerns surrounding the artificial intelligence sector. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 has increased by approximately 16% year-to-date, and historically, December tends to be a more robust month for the benchmark index. Online spending during Black Friday experiences a notable increase, despite prevailing concerns regarding declining U.S. consumer confidence. In other developments, oil prices are experiencing a slight increase following the endorsement by the OPEC+ producer group of a strategy to maintain production levels unchanged during the initial quarter of 2026.

Dow futures indicated a downward trend on Monday, as the final trading month of the year commenced, with investors closely monitoring the trajectory of profits within the artificial intelligence sector and speculating on a possible reduction in U.S. interest rates later this month. As of 03:16, the Dow futures contract experienced a decline of 234 points, representing a decrease of 0.5%. Similarly, S&P 500 futures fell by 41 points, equating to a 0.6% drop, while Nasdaq 100 futures saw a reduction of 189 points, or 0.7%. The primary indices on Wall Street experienced an uptick on Friday, characterized by low trading volumes in a session abbreviated due to the Thanksgiving holiday. During the week, all three major indices experienced an increase exceeding 3%. The benchmark S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded a favorable November, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite experienced a decline of 1.51%. This downturn reflects ongoing apprehensions regarding the sustainability of inflated tech valuations and the significant, frequently debt-driven, expenditures on AI. In individual stocks, shares of CME Group experienced a modest increase. The company garnered attention following an outage that led to a temporary suspension of futures contracts across various asset classes, including stocks and currencies, just before the commencement of the holiday-shortened trading session.

In the context of a fluctuating economic landscape and a deteriorating labor market, U.S. consumer confidence as the holiday shopping season commences is positioned at a seven-month low. However, leveraging AI-enhanced shopping tools to compare prices and seek discounts, Americans’ online spending on Black Friday experienced a significant increase this year. U.S. consumers allocated a record $11.8 billion for online purchases on the day following Thanksgiving, reflecting a 9.1% increase compared to the previous year, as reported by Adobe Analytics. According to Adobe, traffic driven by AI to U.S. retail sites experienced an increase exceeding 800%. In the previous year, AI tools such as Amazon’s Rufus and Walmart’s Sparky offerings had not yet been introduced to the market. In this context, e-commerce sales experienced a notable increase of 10.4%, according to data.

Oil prices increased by over 1% on Monday, bolstered by OPEC+’s commitment to maintain output levels during the first quarter, alongside heightened supply concerns arising from geopolitical tensions. As of 04:12, Brent Oil Futures expiring in February increased by 1.92% to $63.57 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures also experienced a rise of 2.12% to $59.76 per barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday reaffirmed its strategy to halt production increases through the first quarter of the upcoming year, sustaining voluntary reductions of approximately 3.24 million barrels per day. The group indicated a prudent stance as it navigates fluctuating demand patterns and what it perceives as a possible oversupply in oil markets in the coming year. Crude received further backing from a sequence of assaults over the weekend targeting Russian energy infrastructure, leading to disruptions in export operations. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, a key channel for the transportation of Kazakh and Russian crude oil via the Black Sea, announced the suspension of loadings following a naval drone strike that inflicted considerable damage on a mooring point at its Novorossiysk terminal.

The Japanese yen appreciated against the dollar following remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who indicated that policymakers would weigh the “pros and cons” of a potential interest rate hike at the forthcoming meeting on December 18–19. Ueda suggested that there appears to be no significant resistance from the newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is recognized for her advocacy of more accommodative monetary policy, regarding the prospect of increasing interest rates, according to analysts. “This second factor had been crucial for markets, whose basic understanding was that Takaichi represented a dovish-leaning influence,” they wrote. Investors viewed Ueda’s wording as indicative of a hawkish stance, raising anticipations that the BOJ might implement its inaugural rate hike since moving away from negative rates earlier this year. The yen experienced support from an increase in Japanese government bond yields, as market participants adjusted their expectations for a greater likelihood of monetary tightening.

In the interim, market participants were analyzing a series of manufacturing sector indicators across Asia. China’s manufacturing sector has experienced a continued downturn, as indicated by both official and private metrics, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction. The data indicated a lackluster domestic demand and feeble external orders in the world’s second-largest economy, influenced in part by U.S. tariff pressures, thereby amplifying worries that China’s recovery continues to be inconsistent despite recent policy interventions. In Japan, the manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth consecutive month in November, although the decline occurred at the slowest pace since August. South Korea’s monthly purchasing managers’ index experienced another contraction, influenced by weak demand and a deceleration in export momentum.