Futures on the Dow are experiencing an uptick, coinciding with the impending release of significant inflation and growth data. Worries are increasing regarding the stability of the private credit sector after a declaration from a leading figure in the industry, while oil prices remain stable in the context of ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran.

Dow Futures indicated an upward trajectory on Friday, as market participants prepared for a series of significant economic indicators while evaluating emerging concerns regarding the stability of the private credit sector. By 03:09, the futures contract had increased by 54 points, representing a 0.1% rise, while another futures contract had advanced by 14 points, or 0.2%, and a third had ascended by 57 points, also reflecting a 0.2% gain. The primary indices declined in the previous session, influenced by concerns regarding persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and several corporate earnings reports that analysts at Vital Knowledge characterized as “underwhelming.” Walmart, the prominent big-box retailer, indicated that inflation in general merchandise has significantly increased due to extensive U.S. tariffs and presented a cautious outlook for the current year, resulting in a decline in its shares. Tech giant Apple experienced a decline, contributing to the downward movement of the benchmark S&P 500. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran moderated his previously held dovish stance on interest rates. The remarks, following the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, indicated that multiple participants expressed concerns regarding a potential rate increase in the coming months. This has fueled speculation that borrowing costs could be diverging from President Donald Trump’s preference for swift and substantial reductions, according to analysts at Vital Knowledge. This development increases the likelihood of a clash between the White House and the Federal Reserve.

On Thursday, significant attention was directed towards the private credit markets following Blue Owl Capital’s announcement that investors would not have the option to request a predetermined sum of money back on a quarterly basis. Blue Owl will determine the amount it wishes to return to investors on a quarterly basis. Shares of Blue Owl declined, mirroring the performance of its peers, indicative of escalating concerns regarding potential challenges within the often opaque private credit sector, which has extended trillions of dollars in loans to businesses in recent years. Concerns have emerged regarding the extent of lenders’ exposure to software stocks, which have faced pressure as traders express anxiety over potential disruptions stemming from the rise of new artificial intelligence models. In a social media post, former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian pondered whether Blue Owl’s redemption changes represented a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, akin to the beginning of the financial crisis nearly two decades ago. “There’s plenty to consider here, beginning with the risks associated with an investing phenomenon in advanced markets that has reached excessive levels overall (short answer: yes), to the strategies employed by specific firms (numerous variations, yet vulnerable to the “market for lemons” risk),” El-Erian stated.

Oil prices have stabilized, positioning themselves for their first weekly gain in three weeks, as rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran have heightened concerns regarding potential disruptions to supplies from the Middle East. Futures were last observed trading largely flat at $71.66 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures experienced a decline of 0.1% to $66.35. Both contracts remained close to their peak since early August, poised to increase by over 6% for the week. Tensions persisted following Trump’s remarks on Thursday, in which he stated that “really bad things” would occur if Iran fails to reach an agreement concerning its nuclear program within a 10-15 day timeframe, thereby heightening the possibility of military intervention. Any escalation involving Iran, a significant OPEC producer, could jeopardize the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for approximately one-fifth of global oil shipments.

On Friday, investors will focus on economic data, particularly the monthly personal consumption expenditures price index, which stands out among the notable releases. The core PCE index, a key measure of inflation monitored by the Federal Reserve, is projected to be 0.3% month-on-month in December, up from 0.2% in November. The year-on-year metric from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is projected at 3.0%, compared to the previous figure of 2.8%. Separate data last week indicated that the headline consumer price index increased at a slower than anticipated rate in January, reinforcing expectations that the Fed might advance the timing of its forthcoming interest rate reduction to as early as June. A robust job market figure earlier in the week had previously bolstered expectations that the central bank, which reduced rates multiple times in 2025, would not recommence easing until the latter half of this year.

Meanwhile, an advance reading of U.S. growth is expected to indicate a deceleration in the October-December period. Quarter-on-quarter, projections indicate that the world’s largest economy is anticipated to have grown by 2.8% in the final three months of 2025, a deceleration from the 4.4% growth observed in the third quarter. Between July and September, consumer spending, historically a significant component of U.S. economic activity, remained a key engine of growth. A declining trade deficit, partly driven by President Trump’s extensive tariff measures, was also a significant factor in economic growth. While the figure appeared to be robust, many observers have noted that the economy has taken on a “K” shape, with higher-income households and corporations shouldering much of the burden for economic performance. Americans with lower incomes continue to face challenges stemming from relatively high prices and a subdued hiring landscape, while small businesses contend with increasing import costs and a decline in the availability of low-cost labor, a consequence of ongoing immigration restrictions.