Dow Futures exhibit little movement as the temporary ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran continues to show signs of fragility. Israel persists in its bombardments of Iran-backed Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, contributing to the uncertainty surrounding potential significant discussions between American and Iranian officials this weekend. Oil experiences a slight increase while gold sees a decline, as traders remain vigilant regarding developments in the Middle East and the forthcoming U.S. consumer price growth data.

Dow futures exhibited a subdued stance on Friday, as investors maintained a cautious outlook regarding a tenuous U.S.-Iran ceasefire, persistent shipping bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz, and forthcoming inflation data. By 03:27, the Dow futures contract had decreased by 60 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures had declined by 4 points, or 0.15, and futures were largely stable. The primary indices on Wall Street experienced an uptick in the prior session, supported by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement that he had instructed his government to initiate discussions with Lebanon. In light of the recent declaration of a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Israel has persisted in its military operations against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, with strikes reported as recently as Friday morning. Iranian officials have indicated that if Israel continues its strikes on Hezbollah, which are part of its joint campaign with the U.S. that began in late February, the upcoming weekend discussions regarding a prolonged peace agreement with Washington could be jeopardized. The U.S. and Iran have expressed differing views regarding the inclusion of Lebanon in their recently established two-week ceasefire agreement. However, the possibility of a drawn-out, though precarious, conclusion to conflicts in the Middle East appears to have enhanced risk appetite. U.S. stocks have achieved a seven-day winning streak, with the blue-chip index returning to positive territory for the year. In a departure from the ongoing conflict, consumer discretionary stocks experienced an uptick on Thursday following the announcement by Amazon CEO Andy Jassy regarding the firm’s artificial intelligence services within its primary cloud division, which are generating over $15 billion.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill, with reports indicating that shipping through the narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast was significantly below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday, despite the ceasefire. Iran, which exerts significant control over the strait, has jeopardized the passage of approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies, informing vessels that they are required to remain within its territorial waters during any navigational activities. A number of Asian nations are significant importers of crude products that pass through the strait, whereas Europe relies on natural gas sourced from Persian Gulf countries that have faced Iranian assaults. According to reports on Thursday, the bombardments targeting Saudi energy facilities have resulted in a reduction of the kingdom’s oil output capacity by approximately 600,000 barrels per day, alongside a decrease in throughput on its East-West Pipeline by around 700,000 barrels per day. Prolonged shipping delays in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with a reduction in output from Saudi Arabia, a key crude oil hub in the Middle East, contributed to an increase in oil prices on Friday. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, increased by 1.4% to $97.24 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also rose by 1.4% to $99.25 per barrel. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has positioned oil prices for their most significant weekly drop since June 2025, despite crude remaining considerably elevated compared to the levels observed prior to the initiation of the joint U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran in late February.

Gold prices experienced a slight decline during European trading, yet remained positioned for a weekly increase. Despite bullion’s traditional appeal as a safe-haven asset, it has largely underperformed during the Iran conflict. The increase in oil prices has intensified inflation worries and heightened anticipations that the Federal Reserve may maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period, potentially creating a challenge for a non-yielding asset such as gold. Instead, investors gravitated towards the U.S. dollar, which further diminished gold’s attractiveness by increasing the cost of the yellow metal for international purchasers. However, in light of the renewed optimism surrounding a sustainable ceasefire, the dollar’s performance against a range of its currency counterparts has declined by over 1% in the past week. “These levels clearly reflect significant optimism; however, a further decline in USD is likely if a permanent peace deal is reached and the flows through the Strait of Hormuz are restored,” analysts noted.

Later today, we may gain insight into the inflationary effects of the war, as the March measure of U.S. consumer price growth is set to be released. There is a strong consensus among economists that the headline reading is expected to increase significantly compared to February, primarily due to a rise in gasoline prices triggered by the energy shock associated with Iran. The national average retail gasoline price has surpassed $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years. The price of diesel, an essential fuel for the transportation of goods such as food, has increased significantly. However, the consumer price index for the month is anticipated to reflect only the short-term impacts of the increase in oil prices. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile items such as fuel and food, are anticipated to increase at a more measured rate. As a result, the analysts argued, the Fed may choose not to give too much weight to the headline figure for now.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, or TSMC, experienced a significant rise in its first-quarter revenue, driven by robust demand stemming from advancements in artificial intelligence. The firm holds the position of the largest contract chip manufacturer globally and serves as a crucial supplier to leading AI companies, including Nvidia. It also produces chips for a significant portion of the smartphone and electronics sector, including the leading company Apple. TSMC’s March revenue increased by 45.2% compared to the same month last year, reaching T$415.19 billion ($13.07 billion). Revenue experienced an increase of 30.7% compared to February. TSMC’s revenue for March reached T$1.13 trillion, marginally surpassing Bloomberg’s estimates of T$1.12 trillion. The figure represented an increase from the revenue of T$839.25 billion recorded a year prior.