Dow Futures fluctuate around the neutral point, as the anticipation for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at its September meeting diminishes following a series of recent data releases. In the upcoming days, market participants will focus on earnings reports from the retail sector, notably those from Walmart, Home Depot, and Lowe’s. Elsewhere, the valuation of Anthropic’s potentially significant public debut could reportedly depend on a 2028 revenue target of up to $200 billion, while shipping in the Strait of Hormuz diminishes over the weekend.

Dow futures exhibited a mixed performance on Monday, as investors assessed a reduction in expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike while preparing for a new wave of significant earnings reports from the retail sector this week. By 03:08, the Dow futures contract had dipped by 26 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had risen by 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had climbed by 160 points, or 0.5%. The primary indices on Wall Street experienced a decline in the previous session, influenced in part by U.S. retail sales data that fell short of expectations. An optimistic forecast from chip equipment provider Applied Materials did not meet high expectations, resulting in a decline of over 5% in shares and negatively impacting other companies linked to the artificial intelligence surge. In a note to clients, analysts indicated that indications are surfacing of a summer lull in markets, referencing a decline in the VIX volatility index to a 2026 low on Friday. However, despite equity indices remaining near all-time highs, analysts have pointed out “challenging August crosswinds playing out in bond markets.” And “Expectations for an imminent Fed rate hike have been pulled back, but this has been accompanied by a significant U.S. curve steepening, with the backdrop of higher oil prices, elevated fiscal deficits, and demand for capital from the AI investment boom putting upward pressure on yields,” the analysts wrote. Minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting and preliminary August business activity data may pose an additional challenge for bond markets this week, they noted. During the upcoming week, attention will likely center on the earnings reports from major retail chains. Do-it-yourself chain Home Depot is set to release its results, alongside other retail industry leaders such as Target, Lowe’s, and Walmart.

Anthropic is projecting annual revenue of approximately $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028 as bankers and investors evaluate the AI developer in anticipation of a potential blockbuster initial public offering, according to sources. The previously unreported forecast exceeds the $47 billion revenue run rate that Anthropic disclosed in May by more than four times, underscoring the magnitude of growth that investors are being asked to factor into the company’s valuation, according to sources. Citing individuals acquainted with Anthropic’s financial situation, the news agency reported that bankers and investors are utilising enterprise value-to-revenue multiples on projections extending two years ahead. Valuations based on revenue are prevalent among rapidly expanding software firms that lack established profit metrics. Projecting two years into the future is somewhat atypical and illustrates both Anthropic’s swift growth and the challenges associated with valuing an AI firm that is heavily investing in computing infrastructure, model development, and talent acquisition.

Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz diminished over the weekend, as vessels navigating the route confront the potential for attacks, while discussions aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran continue to be at a standstill. Shipping data from Kpler, as reported, indicates that five commodity vessels transited the strait on Saturday, while there were no vessels on Sunday. During the previous weekend, 31 vessels had navigated the crucial waterway. Activity in the strait seemed to come to a complete standstill after strikes targeted three vessels operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company last week. The United Arab Emirates has reported the attacks. Meanwhile, the U.S. has recently indicated that it might sustain its naval blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely, undermining already diminishing expectations for an immediate diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran. Before the offensive initiated by the U.S. and Israel against Iran in late February, over 130 vessels daily navigated the strait, establishing it as a critical chokepoint in the global oil and liquefied natural gas supply chain. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were recently down by 0.1% at $88.45 a barrel.

China’s industrial production growth decelerated in July, as diminished domestic demand and escalating cost pressures counterbalanced the ongoing support from robust overseas demand for Chinese goods. Industrial production increased by 4.5% year-on-year in July, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. This figure fell short of expectations for a 5% rise and represents a deceleration from the 5.3% growth recorded in June. The slowdown occurred as China’s manufacturing sector encountered a more difficult demand environment. The official manufacturing PMI experienced a decline into contraction in July, as domestic consumption continued to show signs of weakness. Simultaneously, strong external demand persisted in bolstering Chinese exports, especially in advanced technology sectors, thereby mitigating the effects on industrial production. Increased expenses associated with disturbances in global energy and shipping markets have further intensified the strain on producers.

Nvidia is in talks to invest as much as $3 billion in SB Energy, a SoftBank Group-backed developer of a planned data center campus in Ohio for OpenAI, The Information reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the discussions. The investment is under consideration within distinct negotiations that include Nvidia, OpenAI, and SB Energy, concerning the chipmaker’s provision of approximately $100 billion in credit support for the proposed data center campus in Ohio, according to the report. The discussions underscore Nvidia’s increasing involvement in funding and facilitating the infrastructure essential for the swift expansion of AI, in conjunction with its primary business of providing advanced chips that support this emerging technology. The discussions remain ongoing, and the terms of any potential investment could change, according to the report. Nvidia is scheduled to announce its most recent quarterly results next week.