Dow Futures are on the rise, as traders monitor speculation regarding a new series of peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Mediators persist in their efforts to negotiate an agreement aimed at prolonging a temporary ceasefire and facilitating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices persist below the $100 per barrel threshold, even as they exhibit a slight upward movement. In other developments, China’s economy has expanded more than expected in the first quarter, and the net profit of the leading contract chipmaker has reached an all-time high.
Dow Futures indicated an upward trajectory on Thursday, supported by increasing optimism regarding negotiations aimed at establishing a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East, alongside positive preliminary remarks concerning quarterly corporate earnings. As of 03:38, the Dow futures contract experienced an increase of 56 points, representing a 0.1% rise, while another futures contract advanced by 15 points, or 0.2%, and a third futures contract rose by 114 points, equating to a 0.4% gain. Outside the United States, Japan has reached a new all-time high, while European stocks have experienced a slight increase. The benchmark S&P 500 and the technology-focused Nasdaq Both composites advanced in the previous session, reaching record highs, largely driven by optimism that the Iran conflict may soon be approaching a resolution. Meanwhile, a series of executives from major financial institutions characterized the American economy as predominantly resilient in response to an energy shock triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway off of Iran’s southern coast through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil is transported. “[W]hile it’s still early in the [calendar first-quarter] reporting season, and the full fallout from the Iran war hasn’t been felt yet in the economy, we’ve been positively surprised by corporate results thus far, especially the ‘status quo’ messaging from bank CEOs,” analysts remarked in a note. Additional significant earnings reports are scheduled for release later today, as the U.S. reporting season accelerates. The beverage manufacturer is poised to release its results prior to the market’s opening, while the streaming behemoth will do so after the conclusion of U.S. trading hours.
The analysts noted that an impending extension to a detente between the U.S. and Iran has become the “consensus view” among investors, to the extent that they anticipate ongoing headlines regarding a potential deal “will lose their ability to rally the market.” Although a formal ceasefire agreement has not been established, media reports suggest that peace efforts are showing signs of advancement. Washington and Tehran have reached a preliminary agreement to engage in new discussions, following an initial round of negotiations last weekend in Pakistan that did not result in an immediate agreement, as reported by the source. According to sources acquainted with the situation, the report indicated that neither party has established a timeline or location for the meeting. According to the WSJ, Vice President JD Vance is set to head the American delegation in forthcoming negotiations with the Iranians. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that discussions between Israel and Lebanon are scheduled for later today. According to reports from Lebanese officials, the Financial Times indicates that a ceasefire between the two parties, which poses a risk to the U.S.-Iran truce, is anticipated to occur “soon.”
Nonetheless, indications of tension persisted, particularly regarding the continuing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. A senior military official in Iran has cautioned Washington against persisting with the blockade, which U.S. Central Command asserts has not been circumvented by any commercial vessels or oil tankers associated with Iran. Additional reports indicated that several vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz this week. Reports indicate that Iran may contemplate permitting vessels to navigate unimpeded through the Omani side of the strait, mitigating the risk of attack, as a component of a peace agreement. In this context, oil prices experienced a slight increase, remaining under the $100 mark yet significantly elevated compared to pre-war levels, as market participants assess the ramifications of an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, for the week, crude experienced significant losses, with any potential gains largely suppressed by expectations of reduced tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
China’s economy experienced growth that surpassed expectations in the first quarter of 2026, bolstered by robust export demand and a resurgence in domestic consumption following years of lackluster performance. GDP expanded by 5% year-on-year, aligning with the upper threshold of Beijing’s annual target. The report contributed to a degree of optimism regarding oil demand in the world’s largest crude importer; however, various other indicators revealed a deceleration in economic momentum as the first quarter drew to a close. The prospects for China’s economy continue to be ambiguous amid the ongoing conflict in Iran, particularly considering that Beijing relies heavily on crude oil imports from Tehran.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, or TSMC, reported a first-quarter profit that exceeded expectations on Thursday, as the leading contract chipmaker capitalized on robust demand for artificial intelligence technologies. However, the company cautioned about a possible effect on its profitability resulting from disruptions in chemical and energy supplies linked to the conflict in the Middle East, although such an effect seemed improbable in the short term. TSMC reported a record-high net profit of T$572.48 billion for the three months ending March 31, surpassing estimates of T$542.38 billion. Income surged by 58.3% compared to the same period last year. The robust profit was primarily driven by a 35% rise in revenue, which reached T$1.134 trillion in the first quarter.